In the changing political scenario, it is difficult to predict who will be the winner. But for the first time in the history of Indian Parliament an interesting discussion is taking place over the N-deal.
AS THE acid test for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government approaches, power politics in the Capital is taking numerous turns and twists. In this fierce battle over who wins the game, the country is guessing and watching. Speculation is mounting over Sonia Gandhi’s clearing the litmus test, which she is facing for the first time in her political career.
In the similar tests in 1993, the then Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao lost by 14 votes and Atal Bihari Vajpayee was defeated by a solitary vote. During Rao’s regime everyone thought, he would lose, but fortune favoured him. In contrast, when Vajpayee moved the confidence motion in 1999, all were expecting him to survive but he failed due to former chief minister of Orissa Gamango’s vote. The late Speaker Balayogi wanted him to vote with his conscience and this lead to Vajpayee’s fall.
Interesting, the political mentor of present prime minister, Narasimha Rao, like a ‘Chanakya’ won the game with the help of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) members and a splinter group of Janata Dal (JD). Now, the same JMM has become a crucial party to pull out of the UPA and more or less Ajit Sigh as well. When we see all these could Manmohan Singh use the same wisdom of his late ‘guru’.
Let us now look into numerology. There were only two occasions so far when a close floor fight took place. One among them was in the year 1993. If we add all these, the numbers total to 22.
Once again add that, and an even number of four will come.
At this time the Late Rao had succeeded. When Vajpayee was deserted by Jayalalita’s All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), he sought the confidence of the House. That happened in 1999. If you add these numbers an even number of 10 will come. But Vajpayee was defeated by a single vote. Compare them with the present situation which took place in 2008. When we add all these digits a number of 10 will come. So, the Manmohan Singh is also facing the same critical period which Vajpayee faced a few years ago. Then Jayalalitha was the heroine and now Mayawati is challenging the government.
Barring all this numerology, the issue now in front of the parliament is very different from the previous motions of the same category. For the first time in the country’s Parliament a deal of two countries is under discussion by the members. The two days of Parliament will be watched by the millions of people on television, the same way it was watched in 1999.
At this juncture, if the numbers game is won by the present government the prestige of Sonia Gandhi will touch the sky and the Congress party will get a new strength to fight the next elections. Otherwise, it will be very difficult to Congress in future and the UPA will dissimulate.